Calgary Economic Region Labour Market Outlook 2024-2033
Today, the Calgary Economic Region Labour Market Outlook 2024-2033 was released on calgary.ca/economy. This is the first economic regional-level labour market outlook to provide detailed labour market projections, including a 10-year assessment of the expected gap between labour demand and supply within the Calgary Economic Region.
The report assesses what is responsible for changes in the demand and supply of jobs and estimates future supply and demand by industry, occupation, and education. After providing a long-term assessment of potential labour market imbalances in the region, the report suggests policy changes to help address the identified labour market imbalances.
“The key takeaway from the Labour Market Outlook is that the Calgary Economic Region is expected to experience dynamic labour market conditions and challenges over the next decade. During the current budget cycle, the CER labour market will experience labour surpluses driven by increases in population and labour supply, but the Outlook also shows that we should anticipate labour shortages in specific occupations in the next budget cycle”, said Carla Male, The City’s Chief Financial Officer.
Key highlights include:
- Over the next 10 years, the Calgary Region is expected to offer 479,000 positions to job seekers. Economic growth is expected to drive job openings within the current budget cycle. However, replacing aging workers will be the primary driver of job openings in the long term, as it is estimated that one in every six Calgarians will be at least 65 years or older by 2030.
- Hiring challenges that began after the pandemic are expected to ease within the current budget cycle (2023-2026) as the number of job seekers exceeds the number of job openings as net migration reaches record highs. This labour surplus will be driven by the federal government’s plan to attract 985,000 workers (and their families), coupled with Calgary’s relative housing affordability.
- The next budget cycle (2027-2030) will see a different trend driven by a shortage in labour supply. The combination of economic expansion as interest rates moderate, coupled with a slowdown in population growth will lead to a slowdown in job seekers and surge in job openings. Without compensating policy actions, some labour market imbalances are expected to re-emerge in key occupations between 2027 and 2030.
- Five Industries are expected to account for half of all job openings over the next 10 years.
o Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
o Health Care and Social Assistance
o Retail Trade
o Accommodation and Food Services
o Construction
- To read the report and learn about the recommended policy actions to address the upcoming hiring challenges visit Calgary Economic Region Labour Market Outlook 2024-2033 at calgary.ca/economy.
About this report and its authors
The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy and labour market. The forecasts are used to assist the municipal government in financial and physical planning for Calgary.
The City’s Corporate Economics team are experts in their field and create reliable forecasts based on various indicators. They have developed reliable methods of forecasting and analysis that are specific to the Calgary region.
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