The Fall 2023 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook is now available
Today, the Fall 2023 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2023-2028 was released on calgary.ca/economicoutlook.
The Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2023-2028 is now available on calgary.ca. The City of Calgary tracks economic indicators throughout the year to develop insights about the impacts of external events on the local economy to support the financial and physical planning of the city. This information provides a useful basis for decision-making by outlining and clarifying the economic opportunities and threats the region faces.
“The key takeaway from the Fall outlook is that growth in the Calgary Economic Region in 2023 is expected to outpace the rest of Canada, as relative housing affordability and lower living costs drive interprovincial migration and attract a sizeable share of international immigrants to our city. Accompanying this record-setting increase in population will be a greater demand for housing, infrastructure, and public services”, said Carla Male, The City’s Chief Financial Officer.
Key highlights include:
- Strong population growth that has outpaced other major Canadian cities in the past 10 years (23.7 per cent) and is expected to continue in 2023, with solid growth from international and interprovincial net migration.
- While inflation should continue to decelerate, there are signs of persistent inflationary pressures. Consumer prices in Calgary are growing at a lower pace in 2023. After a 7.2 per cent increase in 2022, the annual average inflation growth in Calgary is expected to moderate to 3.9 per cent in 2023.
- Robust crude oil production and exports in the province have provided solid support to Calgary’s local and regional economic growth. The real GDP growth rate for the Calgary Economic Region in 2023 will remain robust and exceed the provincial, Canadian, U.S. and global economic performance. However, rising debt servicing costs and worsening indebtedness of Calgarians are expected to dampen consumer spending.
- Elevated financing costs have weighed on investments in the Calgary Economic Region, with the annual average prime lending rate at its highest in past two decades at 7.0 per cent in 2023. Total investments should gradually recover with the moderation of interest rates between 2024 and 2028.
- Calgary’s forecasted increase in population and labour force growth will put upward demand on city services, while inflation will increase costs and put upward pressure on the cost to deliver services to citizens.
About this report and its authors
The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy, and the results are published twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts are used to assist the municipal government in financial and physical planning for Calgary.
The City’s Corporate Economics team are experts in their field and create reliable forecasts based on various indicators. They have developed reliable methods of forecasting and analysis that are specific to the Calgary region.